Super Bowl LVIII takes place on Sunday, February 11, featuring the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers duking it out for the title. EA Sports historically simulates the Big Game and releases the results of the match-up, with this year’s simulation picking the Chiefs to win by a score of 30-28.

According to the simulation, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes will be the Super Bowl MVP, marking his second year in a row as the MVP of the big game.

EA’s predictions in the past have been eerily accurate, like in 2015 when the simulation predicted the Patriots’ comeback victory against the Seattle Seahawks–and the final score–along with the exact type of pass play that made it happen. It was spooky. But EA isn’t always that accurate with its predictions. Sometimes, the simulation gets it very, very wrong.

With the Big Game dominating the sporting world this week, we’re looking back at the past 10+ years of EA Sports Madden Super Bowl simulations and predictions. As you’ll see, EA’s track record for predicting the winner has been a mix.

EA got off to a hot start by accurately predicting the Super Bowl winners four straight years, from Super Bowl 38 to Super Bowl 41. Since then, however, the simulation never got it right more than two years in a row. The prediction has been wrong for the past three Super Bowls.

What does it all mean? Looking at the past decade-plus, EA has accurately predicted the Super Bowl winner just about 50% of the time.

EA’s annual simulations use the latest rosters to try to predict who will win and what the storylines will be. But the simulation has no way to factor in whatever effect Taylor Swift might have on the result…

Off the field, companies are spending as much as $7 million for 30-second advertisements on CBS, which carries the game this year, alongside broadcasts on Paramount+ and Nickelodeon. There will be commercials galore this year, and you can see all of the Super Bowl commercials here.

Click through the gallery to see a rundown of EA’s Madden Super Bowl simulations over the past years, looking at what was predicted and then what actually happened in real life. Super Bowl 58 takes place Sunday, February 11, starting at 6:30 PM ET on CBS.

If you’re looking to pick up a copy of Madden NFL 24, the game is marked down by 70% right now, and it’s arriving on Game Pass on February 8.